© 1977 by British Computer Society
The probable outcomes of a data processing project
Leicester Polytechnic, The Newarke, Leicester, UK
Assessments of the economic feasibility of projects by conventional methods of payback period, yield or discounted cash flow calculation fail to illustrate the probable variance in the outcome caused by variances in the estimates of the constituent costs and benefits.
This paper describes a technique of simulating outcomes by sampling from assumed distributions and proposes a workable method for finding the distribution of payback periods of data processing projects. The method could be easily adapted to find the distribution of yields or cash flows over a given period.
Received April 1976.